When the Muslim votebank frowns, politicians get into a frenzy. Reacting with alacrity to Muslim ire at Census revelations of the community’s steep growth rate, the UPA government reverted Commissioner J.K. Banthia to his parent cadre for not consulting the Union Home Ministry before releasing data on religious demography. Congress President Sonia Gandhi jumped into the fray, promising an inquiry into so-called statistical errors, and the message heard loud and clear across the country was that there is be no public space for the legitimate concerns of the Hindu community.
First reports gave the Muslim growth rate as 36 percent in the decade 1991-2001. Later, adjustments factoring in the absence of data from Jammu and Kashmir in the 1991 census and from Assam in 1981, scaled this down to 29.3 percent, a decline of 3.6 percent from 32.9 percent growth in the 1991 census. Questions have legitimately been raised about the original and the “adjusted” figures politically extracted from the Census Commission.
Certainly the “adjusted” figures have a higher comfort value. They show that instead of the decadal growth rate of Muslims increasing by 1.5 per cent in 2001, it actually fell by 3.6 per cent. Yet these figures surely hide the true extent of India’s Muslim population, as both Jammu & Kashmir and Assam are States with a high Muslim population. Hence, when the figures for both States are added, we will have to admit having a much higher total Muslim population in the country, and a higher percentage of Muslims to the total population. This reality cannot be evaded.
Hindus have long had a latent fear that the Muslim community will exterminate it from its homeland through demographic aggression in the form of over-breeding and illegal immigration. There is a secret dread, articulated by former Director General of Police, Mr. R.K. Ohri (Long March of Islam, 2004), that Hindus in India will meet the fate of the Christians in Lebanon and parts of the Balkans, where sharp demographic changes over a span of a few decades reduced the majority community to minority status. The warning is not without merit. The population of indigenous religious groups in the country has steadily fallen in percentage terms over the past 110 years, from 1881 to 1991, and this trend has accelerated after Partition. The present controversy over Islamic injunctions against family planning has only added to Hindu discomfort.
The Census 2001 statistics have attracted so much attention partly on account of the security and economic implications of illicit immigration from Bangladesh, and partly because the growth rate of most native religious groups has stagnated or declined. The Muslim community scored poorly on development indices such as literacy and employment, and virtually confined its contribution to the national kitty to demographics. This has understandably frightened the Hindu majority, especially since the Minister of State for Home, Mr. Sriprakash Jaiswal, went so far as to demand a ban on release of population figures of different religious groups. Some politicians even foolishly asked the rationale behind collecting such figures.
Actually, as Dr. J.K. Bajaj of the Centre for Policy Research, Chennai, has pointed out, this is not the first time that the Census has released data on the relative population of different religious groups. Right from the first Census of 1871, data regarding religious demography has been made public and is in fact, the most keenly awaited census data. What is unique about the 2001 figures is that this is the first time since Independence that the Census has tabulated religious demography against socio-cultural factors like literacy, age distribution, employment status, female child ratio, and so on. This has enabled scholars to examine the causes of the changing demographics of different religious communities. As of now, it appears that the Muslim population in India is unlikely to stabilize at normal replacement levels. From 10.43 percent in 1951, Muslims have risen to 13.43 percent in 2001.
It is relevant that even the “adjusted” figures of 29.3 percent put the Muslim rate of growth well above the national average, and also above that for other major communities such as the Hindus (20.3 percent); Christians (22.6 percent) and Sikhs (18.2 percent). It bears mentioning that the Hindu growth rate in the previous decade declined by as much as five percentage points, to 20.3 percent. Hence, the nine percent officially admitted lead enjoyed by the Muslim community has understandably sent alarm bells ringing across the nation.
Since independence, Hindus as a community have been declining in percentage terms. In 1951, Hindus comprised 85 percent of the population. By 1961 itself they had fallen to 83.4 percent; they were 82.7 percent in 1971 and 80.5 percent in 2001. In sharp contrast, the Muslim community stood at 9.7 percent of partitioned India’s population in 1951, but rose steadily to 10.7 percent in 1961, 11.2 percent in 1971 and 13.4 percent in 2001. The missing censuses of Jammu & Kashmir (1991) and Assam (1981) hardly detract from this trend.
The situation is especially alarming when we look at particular States. In Kerala, Muslims comprised 17.9 percent of the population in 1961, but were a formidable 24.7 percent by 2001. In Assam, Muslims comprised 25 percent of the population in 1961, but were 30.9 percent in 2001. In West Bengal, Muslims rose from 20 percent in 1961 to 25 percent in 2001. In Maharashtra, they marched from 7.6 percent in 1961 to 10.6 percent in 2001. These increases in percentage are unlikely to be reversed in the coming decade. Conversely, the proportion of Hindus has declined in each state.
Muslims are now the majority or near-majority community in the districts of Assam and West Bengal that border Bangladesh, several key districts in eastern Bihar, western Uttar Pradesh, and northern Kerala, and of course Kashmir. This rapidly changing population profile of Assam, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh is a matter of legitimate national concern. Today, with 30.7 million Muslims in a truncated Uttar Pradesh, 20.2 million in West Bengal, 13.7 million in a truncated Bihar and 10.2 million in Maharashtra, India is sitting on a demographic tinderbox.
In the eight decades from 1901 and 1991, Assam witnessed a steep fall in the percentage of native religions, from 84.55 to 68.25 percent, while Muslim population nearly doubled from 15.03 percent to 28.43 percent. Dhubir, Barpeta, Hailakundi and Karimganj are reportedly Muslim majority districts. In West Bengal, Muslims are the majority in Malda and Murshidabad, with West Dinapur and Birbhum slated to follow. In Uttar Pradesh, Rampur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar and Bareilly are close to becoming Muslim majority districts. In Bihar, Muslims have overwhelmed Kishanganj (65.91 percent), and dramatically increased their numbers and percentage in Araria, Katihar, Sahibaganj, Darbhanga and Pashchimi Champaran.
The census must also be viewed in the context of India’s neighbourhood. In 1941, Hindus and Sikhs jointly constituted 19 percent of present-day Pakistan, but fell to one percent by 2001. In 1941, Hindus were 29 percent of present-day Bangladesh, but declined to 18 percent in 1961, 14 percent in 1974, 12 percent in 1981 and 10 percent in 1991. Dhaka’s sustained ethnic cleansing of the past few years can only have accelerated this trend. The conclusion is inescapable: the region is being Islamized. This has obvious implications for national identity and security.
The Pioneer, 21 September 2004
