After virtually squandering away the opening to Teheran by then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the Congress-led UPA has seen the light and invited Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad to drop by on his way back from Colombo. It is to be hoped that the restoration of cordialities will be followed by a full-fledged visit to Teheran by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, thereby completing the cycle begun with the 2003 visit of President Mohammad Khatami, who was chief guest at the Republic Day parade. Mr. Vajpayee’s overtures to Iran, as to Myanmar, were classic realpolitik, but rested on a solid base of historical, civilizational, strategic and commercial interests.
The $7.4-billion gas pipeline project, initiated by the NDA regime but grounded over Pakistan’s demand for an exorbitant transit fee which New Delhi felt would be used to fund terror in her territory, has now received a new lease of life. President Ahmadinejad, who had already been to Islamabad prior to landing in Colombo, has raised hopes that negotiations for what he called a “peace pipeline” would be completed within 45 days. The Iranian President gamely deflected questions about India’s hostile vote at the IAEA in 2006, saying their mutual relations were “much deeper” on account of “many cultural and historical commonalities.” Certainly the UPA is now eating humble pie.
The gas pipeline will link the world’s second-largest gas reserves to the burgeoning economies of South Asia. During the stopover in Pakistan, President Ahmedinejad settled a host of issues which could help complete the pipeline by 2012. Initially it is expected to transport 2.2 billion cubic feet of gas daily to Pakistan and India, half for each country, which would be enlarged to 150 million cubic metres. Indian companies expected to join the pipeline project include ONGC, GAIL, Indian Oil Corporation, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation.
However, the status of the 2005 agreement to import 5 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is uncertain. The 25-year, $22 billion deal, including allowing the Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) to buy 5 million tons per year of LNG, to build an LNG plant in Iran, and develop Iran’s South Pars gas field. It was stalled over pricing issues following India’s unexpected vote against Teheran in 2006. Currently, India buys about 7.5% of Iran’s oil exports. In turn, India supplies a large part of the refined gasoline that Iran imports.
The Iranian President discussed the growing instability in the region, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan, where President Hamid Karzai narrowly escaped a third assassination attempt. New Delhi and Teheran had previously collaborated with the Northern Alliance to end the dreaded Taliban, and continue to cooperate with Kabul to rebuild its ravaged infrastructure. Currently, however, it seems unlikely that the United States will withdraw troops from Baghdad, no matter who makes it to the White House in November 2008. With respect to Kabul, however, the nature of press leaks from London and Washington suggest that America is on the verge of arriving at some kind of understanding with the Taliban. How this impacts on the security and stability of the region remains to be seen. Taliban’s proximity to the ISI and Islamabad will naturally be of concern to New Delhi.
The UPA seems finally to have woken up to the fact that it does not pay to make enemies in the neighbourhood. Beijing, in sharp contrast, has cultivated its own neighbours, as well as India’s, and any further negligence in this respect could prove tremendously costly. India is now resuming cooperation with Iran to help Kabul develop an alternative access route to the sea through Iran’s Chabahar port, connecting to Afghanistan through the Melak-Zaranj-Delaram road. This will connect it with the ‘garland’ highway linking the landlocked country to energy-rich Central Asia. Having seriously bungled the strategic relationship with Kathmandu, the UPA is now striving to give strength to bilateral ties in Iran, and high-level exchanges are being boosted through the Strategic Dialogue and Consultations of the National Security Councils of both nations. It is pertinent that Iran has frequently objected to Islamabad’s attempts to move anti-India resolutions at bodies like the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC).
The BJP, which suffered the embarrassment of the former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra advocating the nuclear deal that the party opposes in toto, can take solace from the fact that the nuclear deal in its present format seems virtually a non-starter, else the UPA would not have tried to put relations with Teheran on an even footing again. New Delhi also refused Washington’s request to raise the issue of Iran’s nuclear energy programme with President Ahmedinejad.
The UPA could also learn a valuable lesson or two from tiny Sri Lanka. The island nation got President Ahmadinejad to boost the capacity of its main Sapugaskanda oil refinery with a $1.5 billion loan. The Sri Lankan President, Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has been tackling the menace posed by the Tamil Tigers sternly and effectively, is being criticized by the West for so-called human rights violations; and is seeking closer relationships with fellow Asian nations. President Ahmedinejad backed Colombo on the issue of foreign powers who create and exploit internal divisions among people and nationalities. India, which faced similar international calumny when its security forces tackled the Khalistan insurgency, and now battles Maoist terrorists with foreign backers, needs to express its solidarity with its Asian neighbours more unequivocally. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh should take the lead by not allowing politicization of Naxalite insurgencies in BJP-ruled states.
Organiser weekly, 4 May 2008