Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s calibrated move to defect from the NDA to scuttle the projection of the Gujarat Chief Minister as the alliance’s Prime Ministerial candidate, or ensure that the BJP falls short of the desired numbers whenever elections are held, has not come as a surprise to those who have observed his growing uneasiness on this issue since at least 2010 when he won the State elections for the second time. A section of the ‘secular’ media then asserted that Kumar had won on a ‘development’ plank (hitherto Modi’s USP), and pronounced him a more suitable consensus candidate for the NDA’s premier post – a flattery to which he seems to have succumbed.
Since then, much water has flown under the bridge. The sheen of Bihar’s ‘development’ has worn thin and voters, free of the lawless RJD regime and having overcome their initial joy over road repairs and cycles for girls, are disillusioned at the lack of growth, employment, opportunity. Kumar’s inability to tackle the real economy, coupled with his antics with the Centre for a ‘special package’ for the State, with an Adhikar Rally in Delhi on March 17, have not enhanced his image.
The quest for a special package bears examining in view of the JD(U)’s claims to have won on a ‘development’ plank. The Budget 2013 presented by finance minister Sushil Modi had an almost Rs 7,000-crore revenue surplus, which it had failed to spend. Similarly, Budget 2012 contained a surplus of almost Rs 8,000 crore. In fact, 2013 was the fourth revenue-surplus budget. So why does Nitish Kumar need extra money for from the Centre? He has failed to invest in projects that could generate employment and spur the State economy.
Then, development is to be judged by three indices – GDP, HDI, and Ecological Health (which is what supports life). Bihar is showing high GDP growth but low HDI ranking (meaning poverty); hence, the demand for Central assistance. But his economic model is faulty. NSSO data shows that only 5 per cent of households claim PDS food grains, but the Bihar Government has sought Rs 1500 crore for PDS support. Liquor sales have risen while excise revenue is stagnant, and this merits scrutiny.
Cornered over the lack of growth, Nitish Kumar has opted for political grandstanding. Bihar’s 15 per cent Muslim vote – by no means the sole preserve of the Janata Dal (United) – is a favourite scapegoat in his virtual notice to the BJP regarding Narendra Modi. But it is questionable if it has consolidated in his favour; nor is it clear how he intends to make up the loss of votes transferred by the BJP to the coalition.
Kumar’s journey with the BJP has many vicissitudes. Prior to the 2010 Vidhan Sabha elections, he planned a banquet at his official residence for delegates at the BJP national executive meeting, where Modi would surely be present. He cancelled at the last moment in anger over a newspaper advertisement, sponsored by a businessman, which included a photograph of Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar jointly campaigning for the NDA during the 2009 Lok Sabha polls (most probably at Chandigarh). He gracelessly returned the monetary aid extended by the Gujarat government for the Kosi flood victims.
The BJP swallowed the humiliation stoically, and did not rock the coalition in the State. It is therefore inexplicable why a party spokesperson was allowed to lash out at Kumar and unleash an unseemly spectacle upon the nation. Narendra Modi has himself maintained silence, as have most senior leaders. Bihar’s Mangal Pandey made a modulated statement, but overall the decibels are rising on both sides. BJP president Rajnath Singh would do well to crackdown on the sniping until the party has formulated a strategy to cope with the fallout of the inevitable split. Kumar himself has given an 8-month deadline to decide the issue of prime ministerial candidate; there is no good reason to jump the gun.
Kumar has made ‘independent’ moves previously as well. During the Presidential elections of 2012, he opted for Congress nominee Pranab Mukherjee. That his father was a Congress leader and he would have links with the party should have been known to the BJP.
The real Bihar story is the lack of development. Having failed to generate power, the regime has failed to attract industry and investment; hence there are no jobs, and people are fast becoming disillusioned. That is why Nitish Kumar has had to switch his narrative from development to backwardness! To ensure that voters, especially Muslims, do not revert to Lalu Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan, he is seeking a bogey in Narendra Modi.
Still, he could miscalculate because the JD(U)-BJP alliance is one of the best social coalitions ever crafted, and jointly controls 40 percent of the vote. A split could take the next State elections any which way.
It would be wiser to retreat from brinkmanship and focus energies on the stench of corruption emanating daily from the UPA Government.
NitiCentral.com, 18 April 2013
http://www.niticentral.com/2013/04/18/nitish-kumars-ambition-is-an-illusion-67500.html
