The principle of Common But Differential Responsibility (CBDR) and the Climate Change Fund, both critical to meeting the challenge of climate change successfully, are in jeopardy as the countdown begins for the Climate Change Conference (CoP 21) at Paris later this month. Around 196 nations are meeting to reach an agreement to stop global temperatures from rising more than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Arguing that the developed world has been aware of the polluting effects of industrialisation since the 1890s but did not begin to act until the 1990s when the deleterious effects of climate change became impossible to ignore, developing countries are arguing that the West cannot erase its historical responsibility and rewrite the UN convention at this late stage.
As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is not a new treaty, the developing countries are insisting that CBDR and related issues be upheld at Paris. The UNFCCC called upon developed countries to limit emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and to support developing countries financially and technologically in reducing their carbon footprint. The key elements in the agreement include Adaptation; Mitigation; Loss and damage; Technology development and transfer; Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) and Financing (through Green Climate Fund and Adaptation Fund); Transparency of action and support (including Measurement, Reporting and Verification).
The India-led resistance to the US-led endeavour to downplay CBDR prompted US Secretary of State John Kerry to lambast India’s continued reliance on thermal (coal) energy as a “challenge”, which Union Minister for Environment & Forests, Prakash Javadekar, refuted vigorously. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has proactively engaged the global community on the twin threats posed by terrorism and climate change, most notably at the G-20 summit, London, and recently at the ASEAN Summit. India’s opposition to the attempt to drop the ‘differentiation’ clause from the CoP-21 agreement cannot in fairness be called obstructionist.
Another bone of contention is the $100 billion Climate Change Fund that must be ready by 2020 as per the UN mandated figure of 0.7 per cent of GDP. The West wants to merge this with the Overseas Development Aid (ODA), which developing countries oppose as “double accounting”. So far, Washington has committed only $3 billion, which too, the US Congress has rejected. Hence, it is certain that the CCF will not meet its projected target.
Technology is another stumbling block. India suggested that Western companies with clean technology provide the same free of cost to developing countries, and be compensated for their intellectual property and licensing from the Green Climate Fund. But there is no agreement on this score. The commitments so far made for 2030 lead to a +3 degree scenario; to meet the 2 degree limit, the world must limit emissions to 3000 giga tonnes, of which 2000 giga tonnes have already been used, leaving 1000 giga tonnes for the next 85 years. In this scenario, India has urged the developed world to vacate carbon space for developing countries.
As the Paris agreement kicks off in 2020, India wants all nations to enhance their pre-2020 commitments to make up for the failure of Kyoto and Cancun. There cannot be an “action holiday” for five years, minister Javadekar told the writer.
The Indian Government is building political consensus across the spectrum. It has already spoken to the Congress, Samajwadi Party, CPM, and is slated to meet the NCP and all other parties by November 27. India took the lead in bringing SAARC into the dialogue process although the SAARC grouping is not part of the negotiating bloc of G-77+China. It is helping nearly 40 countries under South-South cooperation.
At Kuala Lumpur, Prime Minister Modi invited Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to join India’s Solar Alliance (Surya-putra) initiative. Japan has taken the back seat on climate change negotiations since the failure of the Kyoto Protocol, by its economic slowdown and the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.
Though Beijing made a deal with Washington to cap emissions in 2030, it is supporting India on many issues. By 2030, the US and China will converge at 12 tonnes per capita emissions, whereas India’s per capita emissions are below two tonnes today. The Global Carbon Report 2014 lists the largest emitters as China at 28 percent, US at 14 percent, EU at 10 percent and India at 7 percent.
India has to lift 30 per cent of its population out of poverty and provide them energy access, housing, et al, for which it will have to continue to rely on coal to meet its energy needs. Yet it has committed to reduce its emission intensity by 33-35 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels, and produce 40 percent of electricity from non-fossil-fuel-based sources by 2030. At Cancun, India had suggested 20-25 per cent reduction in emission intensity by 2020; it has already achieved a 12 per cent cut through non-renewables. It will introduce super critical technology for clean coal in all thermal power plants by 2017.
As the countdown to Paris begins in earnest and problems of global warming manifest increasingly all over the world, the solutions appear equally elusive.