The Assembly elections are turning into a mini-referendum on national perception towards the Congress-dominated United Progressive Alliance at the Centre, with the party heading for defeat in four out of the five States where polling ended today, according to indications in the exit polls. Indeed, the television channels and survey agencies conducting the polls have been so startled with the trends in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, that they have found little time to look at tiny Mizoram, where Lal Thanhawla may give the Congress its only solace.
The Delhi result, whatever it may eventually turn out to be on December 8, has already electrified the city and the nation, and caused deep despondency in the Congress camp, with three time Chief Minister Sheila Dixit in danger of losing her own seat to novice politician Arvind Kejriwal.
The Capital today belied all expectations from political pundits by recording a 65 per cent turnout by 5 pm, with the ultimate turnout likely to cross 70 per cent as unprecedented numbers turned up to vote in the last hour across the city, taking the voting far beyond the 5 p.m. deadline, as Election Commission permits those who have entered the premises of booths to cast their votes. At the time of writing, voting was continuing in several stations. With such a stupendous turnout, far surpassing the 62 per cent figure in 1993 when Delhi voted for Statehood and BJP swept to power on the buoyancy generated by the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, the results could be anyone’s guess.
Sheila Dixit is already on the defensive, but the writing was on the wall when crowds got up to leave when Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi began to speak, in Mongolpuri and also in Ambedkar Nagar. Exit polls generally put the BJP as front runner (29 to 32 seats), but it remains to be seen if the party can win a clear majority, given that this is the first time the Capital has ever had a third party. In the event of a hung Assembly, a Congress-AAP deal could keep the BJP out, but that would hurt the AAP immeasurably.
One fact that has impacted the result is the Election Commission’s house-to-house verification of voters which resulted in 15 lakh fake voters being deleted from the electoral rolls, which would certainly hurt parties that benefit from bogus voting. As for the AAP, it’s campaigning on the issues of transparency, corruption, accountability and governance turned the election into a referendum against Sheila Dixit and seems to have cut more into Congress votes than hurt the BJP, even if only because the ‘Modi factor’ kept traditional and disillusioned voters loyal.
It remains to be seen how BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi’s aggressive campaigning in all seven Lok Sabha constituencies, including mega rallies on the last two days, will impact the results. But it would be unfair to place the burden of the election on the Gujarat Chief Minister as the BJP has been largely dormant in the past 15 years, giving Sheila Dixit an easy walkover. This point will be conclusively established if the lady loses her own seat to the AAP.
In Rajasthan, where Chief Ministerial aspirant Vasundhara Raje worked hard to unite the fractured party unit behind her, and was among the first State leaders to put her weight behind Narendra Modi as Prime Ministerial candidate, the consensus among pollsters is that the BJP is set to return with 105 to 110 seats or more, as against a fall of 62 seats for the Congress. Raje herself has credited Narendra Modi for the extra vibrancy in the public response to her, and there is a general feeling that he deserves credit for some of the spiked vote-share of 4 per cent.
The Gujarat Chief Minister expended much effort for the Rajasthan campaign, and the party benefitted from local issues like the 4 per cent fall in per capita growth over the last three years, the disgust with corruption-laden freebie schemes likes MNREGA, ministers indicted for rape and murder, and firing upon innocents. There is a yearning for development with dignity, best exemplified by the 24×7 electricity available in villages in neighbouring Gujarat.
In Madhya Pradesh, which like Rajasthan borders Gujarat, the development agenda is likely to triumph and give Shivraj Singh Chouhan his third term as Chief Minister. In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress inability to set its house in order has destroyed its chances, with most senior leaders unable to reconcile to the de facto projection of Jyotiraditya Scindia as Chief Ministerial candidate. With the Public Distribution System (PDS) working well, and Chouhan perceived by large swathes of the population as an uncle figure (‘Mama’), the election saw his personal popularity soar above that of nearest rival Scindia (61 per cent as opposed to Scindia’s 25 per cent).
As most analysts have noted, Chouhan has worked sincerely to provide jobs and growth opportunities to the people, as opposed to the Congress tradition of handing out doles, which the people are beginning to dislike. There is also tremendous voter fatigue with the slogan of secularism.
Overall, the trends indicate that the BJP may rake in 135 to 145 seats and win 41 per cent of the vote, a stupendous achievement given that Chouhan has been in power for 10 years. Congress is expected to increase its seat share by 9 only (about 80 seats), which reflects the inability to profit from local disenchantment with the Government on any issue such as corruption at the grassroots. The BJP control over the voter is almost uniform – youth 50 per cent; rural 46 per cent, and urban 43 per cent.
In Chhattisgarh, Chief Minister Raman Singh is set to carry the day with 42 per cent vote (44 seats). The Congress may finish close behind with 41 seats. What is clear is that it was unable to unite and cash in on the sympathy generated by the Maoist attack on its leadership, or to benefit from lacunae in the State Government.
Overall in Chhattisgarh, the BJP popularity is almost uniform across groups – youth 54 per cent; urban 48 per cent and rural 47 per cent. In hard-hitting rallies across the State, and despite increased activity by Maoists and SIMI activists during his tours, Narendra Modi batted furiously for Raman Singh and his grassroots performance. Taking advantage of Congress disunity and inability to declare a Chief Ministerial candidate, he taunted the party to declare former Chief Minister Ajit Jogi as its true face, which took the wind out of the Congress’s sails and helped polarise voters in favour of Dr Singh.
All in all, this is the most electrifying mini-general elections the nation has seen in a very long time. The Congress and its reigning Gandhi dynasty are clearly on the back foot.
Niticentral.com, 4 December 2013