The current spell of Governor’s rule in Jammu & Kashmir seems likely to continue as the People’s Democratic Party and Bharatiya Janata Party have deep reservations about each other, despite public proclamations to the contrary. Even 20 days after the post of Chief Minister fell vacant, the PDP has made no move to stake claim to form the government.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi would be unwise to endorse PDP president Mehbooba Mufti as Chief Minister owing to her softness towards Kashmiri separatists and her role in securing the release of Hurriyat leaders whom the State Government had detained to prevent them from travelling to Delhi and meeting the Pakistani High Commissioner prior to the India-Pakistan Foreign Secretary level talks in August 2015. This nixed the Prime Minister’s desire to keep the engagement bilateral, and led to cancellation of the talks.
The BJP must surely have taken cognizance of Mehbooba Mufti’s startling statement that the coalition fructified only after consent from the separatist Hurriyat Conference. Possibly this is behind BJP subtly flexing its muscles and hinting that core ideological issues and interests of Jammu cannot be compromised.
It would be wise to continue Governor’s rule so that development issues hanging fire for the past 10 months can be taken up, or BJP will fare badly in the event of fresh elections. The party urgently needs to deliver benefits to its base in Jammu and Ladakh regions, most notably ensure better connectivity by building the Jammu-Poonch road, Leh-Manali road, Leh-Manali railway, an AIIMS-type institution in Jammu province and bestow Union Territory status on Ladakh. The railroad project needs only political will to kick-start it.
It appears that the terms of the coalition and Agenda for Alliance are being renegotiated, despite valiant denials from both sides. It seems that stiff opposition from Tariq Hameed Karra and Lok Sabha MP Muzaffar Hussain Baig (both boycotted Modi’s Srinagar rally of November 7) to the alliance is behind Mehbooba Mufti’s decision to call party meetings in Kashmir (January 31) and Jammu (February 3) for feedback. Yet in family-dominated parties such gatherings are a formality as Mehbooba has already received carte blanche (on January 18) to decide about government formation.
Mehbooba appears to be building pressure on the BJP in the run-up to meeting party president Amit Shah next week for revision of the common minimum programme that was drawn up last February. At that time the state BJP leadership was kept out of the loop, despite prolonged negotiations, which caused much heartburning. This is why there is talk that BJP general secretary Ram Madhav may be divested of charge of J&K.
Obviously Mehbooba wants freedom to deal with the separatists so she can win her by-election as an MLA after resigning her Lok Sabha (Anantnag) seat and ensure the victory of her brother, Tassaduq Hussain, as MP. This seems difficult in view of the Centre’s tough attitude towards the Hurriyat; it had forced Mufti Sayeed to re-arrest Masrat Alam after he was freed by the court.
The PDP president’s main ace seems to be the keenness of a section of the State BJP to form the government. But it is a moot point if that will secure written guarantees from the Centre for uninterrupted funds, though the NHPC power projects can justly be handed over so that the State overcomes its acute power shortage.
Ultimately, the Prime Minister must know that any new deal will be political hara-kiri if the BJP does not get a better and fairer portfolio distribution than last time.
One bone of contention remains Mehbooba’s desire to be part of the India-Pakistan-separatist dialogue, something Modi cannot possibly accept even as he struggles to take the Pakistan engagement forward. All in all, Governor’s rule seems set to endure.
ABPLive.in, 27 January 2016
http://www.abplive.in/blog/spell-of-governors-rule-in-jk-best-way-forward-for-bjp
